美联储加息通告(中英文稿) ; 股市汇市楼市风险来了

加息周期才刚刚开始,更猛烈的暴风雨在后面

美联储加息通告(中英文稿);股市、汇市、楼市风险要把握了

文章来源:继民财经汇:微信号jimincaijing

民财经汇导读:2017年3月15日, 美东时间周三下午两点,美联储宣布加息25个基点,联邦基金利率从0.5%~0.75%调升到0.75%~1%。

美联储官员预计,2018年美联储将加息三次。他们还表示,联邦基金利率将在2019年年底达到3%,接近长期平均水平。这较其去年12月的预期有所提前。

美联储的新展望意味着,官员们有信心经济将如期取得进展。经济展望没有发生大的变化,显示出过去三个月来没有大的事件发生来影响他们对经济的判断。

这是美联储今年第一次加息,而且是才刚刚开始,看来更加猛烈的暴风雨真的要来了, 是到时候重新评估股市、楼市和汇率的风险了。

新闻稿(中文翻译仅供参考)

发布日期:2017年3月15日

在美国东部时间下午2:00发布

自联邦公开市场委员会于2月举行会议以来收到的信息表明,劳动力市场继续加强,经济活动继续以适度增长。新增加就业机会保持稳健,最近几个月的失业率几乎没有改变。家庭支出继续温和增长,而商业固定投资似乎已有一定程度的稳定。通货膨胀在近几个季度有所增加,接近委员会长期目标的2%; 不包括能源和粮食价格,通货膨胀几乎没有变化,继续低于2%。基于市场的通货膨胀补偿措施仍然很低; 基于调查的长期通货膨胀预期的衡量指标几乎没有变化。

根据其法定任务,委员会力求促进最大限度的就业和价格稳定。委员会预计,随着货币政策立场的逐步调整,经济活动将以适度的速度扩张,劳动力市场状况将进一步加强,通货膨胀在中期内将稳定在2%左右。近期对经济前景的风险似乎基本平衡。委员会继续密切监测通货膨胀指标和全球经济和金融发展。

鉴于实现和预期的劳动力市场条件和通货膨胀,委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标范围提高到3/4至1%。

货币政策的立场仍然适度,从而支持劳动力市场状况的进一步加强,并持续回到2%的通货膨胀率。

在确定未来对联邦基金利率目标范围进行调整的时间和规模时,委员会将评估与最大就业目标和2%通货膨胀目标相关的已实现和预期的经济状况。这项评估将考虑各种各样的信息,包括劳动力市场状况的衡量标准,通货膨胀压力和通货膨胀预期的指标,以及有关金融和国际发展的数据。委员会将仔细监测与其对称通货膨胀目标相关的实际和预期通货膨胀发展情况。委员会期望经济条件将以适当的方式发展,以便逐步提高联邦基金利率; 联邦基金利率很可能在一段时间内保持在低于预期长期持续的水平。然而,联邦基金利率的实际路径将取决于收到的数据所显示的经济前景。

委员会维持现行政策, 将联邦机构债务和机构抵押支持证券的本金支付再投资于自己的机构抵押支持证券,同时会在拍卖时对到期的国库证券进行展期;并且预计会持续这样做,直到联邦基金利率的正常化水平得到好转。这项政策通过使委员会持有的长期证券处于相当大的水平,应有助于维持适度的财政状况。

FOMC货币政策行动的投赞成票是:Janet L. Yellen,主席;副主席William D. Dudley; Lael Brainard;查尔斯·埃文斯斯坦利·费舍尔帕特里克·哈克罗伯特·卡普兰杰罗姆·鲍威尔和Daniel K. Tarullo。投反对票的是Neel Kashkari,其倾向于在这次会议保持联邦基金利率的现有目标范围。

以下是美联储加息通告英文稿

Press Release

Release Date: March 15, 2017

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in February indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate was little changed in recent months. Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment appears to have firmed somewhat. Inflation has increased in recent quarters, moving close to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective; excluding energy and food prices, inflation was little changed and continued to run somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.

This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.

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